(Last update 14 July ; 01:39AM ; EST)

Hello

This is our first weekly report on forexoma.com. I trust you have already followed the instructions carefully and precisely. If you have not done it yet, please do it and let me know if you have any question. Then follow the reports.

	Download Forexoma Profiles (Last update 14 July ; 01:39AM ; EST)
	Currency Pair of the Week: EUR-USD

#1 - Forexoma - Chart Analysis
Pairs	Most Possible Market Direction (please see the chart analysis before taking any position)
EUR-USD	Currently all of the time frames are showing the downward direction. 4hrs chart just broke below a support line and is going up to retest it. A sell signal below this support line will be the best position to take because it is agreeable with all the bigger time frames. Please see the analysis.
	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	4hrs
GBP-USD	GBP-USD is almost bullish on all time frames. We just need to wait for a fresh buy signal now to go long. On the 4hrs chart, we can go long after the resistance breakout. Please see the analysis.
	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	4hrs
	-
USD-JPY	GBP-USD is almost bullish on all time frames. We just need to wait for a fresh buy signal now to go long. On the 4hrs chart, we can go long after the resistance breakout. Please see the analysis.
	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	4hrs
USD-CHF	USD-CHF market is in an indecision situation in the past 5 weeks. We may have some trade opportunities on the 4hrs chart, but we have to wait for now. Please see the analysis.
	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	4hrs
	-	-	-
GBP-JPY	GBP-JPY has broken down a support line on the weekly chart. So the general direction of the market is down. However, it is not going up strongly to retest the broken support line. I prefer to wait for a strong and fresh sell signal below the broken support line. Please see the analysis.
	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	4hrs
EUR-JPY	Similar situation to GBP-JPY. Please see the analysis.
	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	4hrs
USD-CAD	Please see the analysis.
	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	4hrs
	-
GOLD	A sell signal and MACD Divergence is formed on the monthly chart. Weekly is also bearish, but daily and 4hrs are going up to test the downtrend resistance lines. Please see the analysis.
	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	4hrs
SILVER	A sell signal and MACD Divergence is formed on the monthly chart. Weekly is also bearish, but daily and 4hrs are going up to test the downtrend resistance lines. Please see the analysis.
	Monthly	Weekly	Daily	4hrs

#2 - Forexoma - Trend Following
Pairs	Trend Direction (please see the chart analysis before taking any position)
EUR-USD	Weekly	Daily	4hrs	1hr	30min
	no trend	check the chart on your platform	no trend	no trend	no trend
GBP-USD	Weekly	Daily	4hrs	1hr	30min
	check the chart on your platform	check the chart on your platform	no trend	no trend	no trend
USD-JPY	Weekly	Daily	4hrs	1hr	30min
		check the chart on your platform		check the chart on your platform	check the chart on your platform
USD-CHF	Weekly	Daily	4hrs	1hr	30min
			no trend	no trend	no trend
	There is a downtrend on the daily chart. The entry will be the support line breakout. Please see the analysis and also your platform chart.
GBP-JPY	Weekly	Daily	4hrs	1hr	30min
		no trend		no trend	no trend
	There is a downtrend on the 4hrs chart. The entry will be the support line breakout or a strong sell signal below the SMA(40). Please see the analysis and also your platform chart.
EUR-JPY	Weekly	Daily	4hrs	1hr	30min
	no trend	no trend		no trend	no trend
	There is a downtrend on the 4hrs chart. The entry will be the support line breakout or a strong sell signal below the SMA(40). Please see the analysis and also your platform chart.
USD-CAD	Weekly	Daily	4hrs	1hr	30min
	no trend	no trend	no trend	no trend	no trend
GOLD	Weekly	Daily	4hrs	1hr	30min
	no trend	no trend	no trend	no trend	no trend
SILVER	Weekly	Daily	4hrs	1hr	30min
	no trend	no trend	no trend	no trend	no trend

Central Banks Calendar:

There is no news related to central banks for the next week.

Fundamental Trading:  Last update: 12 July 2009 ; 04:35PM ; EST
United States:
Date	Time (EST)	Statistic	For	Market Expects	Prior	Effect on US Economy	Effect on USD	Positions We Can Take
Jul 14	08:30 AM	Core PPI	Jun	0.1%	-0.1%			Short (Sell) USD-JPY wait for technical analysis confirmation
	08:30 AM	PPI	Jun	0.8%	0.2%
	08:30 AM	Retail Sales	Jun	0.5%	0.5%
	08:30 AM	Retail Sales ex-auto	Jun	0.5%	0.5%
	10:00 AM	Business Inventories	May	-1.0%	-1.1%
Jul 15	08:30 AM	Core CPI	Jun	0.1%	0.1%	-	-	no trade
	08:30 AM	CPI	Apr	0.6%	0.1%

Ok! Lets analyze the market.

Currency Pair of the Week (EUR-USD): 

This is the first weekly report on Forexoma.com. I had EUR-USD as the currency pair of the week for several weeks and here I also prefer to have it as the currency pair of the week, at least for this week. Before I start writing the reports, I check different currency pairs and if I see one of them has something more to learn, I choose it as the currency pair of the week or day. I am supposed to have currency pair of the day, on the daily reports too but sometimes market is too busy and if I focus on one pair, we may miss some other opportunities. However, although you can not see a currency pair of the daily on some of the daily reports, one currency is always analyzed in more details.

EUR-USD is the favorite currency pair for day traders and scalpers because its spread is so tight. For day trading, I prefer GBP-USD because its signals are stronger and more reliable on short time frames. It is always said that EUR-USD is the most traded currency pair and more than 70% of the transactions on the Forex market is just EUR-USD. This is true. But it doesn't mean that 70% of personal traders like you and me, trade EUR-USD only. Please note that Forex market is a big ocean and its movements are not made by personal traders. Big banks and maybe huge hedge funds, make the forex market move. Bank transactions are not mainly done for making profits. In fact many of the transaction are done because they have to be done and banks don't think about its profit or loss at the moment of transaction.

Anyway! Lets focus on market analysis.

Monthly Chart:

Probably, most of you even don't like to think about trading based on the monthly chart, but you should know that there are many traders who use nothing but monthly chart. They keep their positions for several years sometimes. We do not want to do that, BUT, we should know the direction of the monthly chart. At least once every month, that the new monthly candle opens, we should check the monthly chart and try to predict the color and the direction of the next candle. If we can do that, we will know the direction of the next 30 days and this is really valuable. Do you agree?

Let me ask you a question. If you could find a very strong and sharp signal on the monthly chart on one of the currency pairs out of the 25 currency pairs that we check, and that signal would tell you that the currency pair would go down or up at least for 1000 pips during the next month, would you ignore that signal? You would only need to take a position and keep it for one month. I would not ignore that signal. At least, if in my routine trading style, I trade one lot in each position, I would trade that monthly signal for 0.2 lot. The reason is that when you trade based on the monthly chart, your stop loss has to be much wider. Just the upper or lower shadow of a monthly candle can be over 500 pips. For example, the upper shadow of the EUR-USD December 2008 candle, is close to 800 pips. So I would trade that signal and would not let it go away form me.

Ok!

The last three candles on the EUR-USD monthly chart, closed below the 423.60% level. Of course the current candle still has over two weeks to be matured. but it seems this one will also become closed below the the 423.60% level. If you were following me from three months ago, you should remember that I told you that EUR-USD will go up to make another high above the uptrend support line and this new high, should be lower than the last high (July 2008). Lets check the monthly chart with bigger magnification. Please scroll down.

If you have downloaded and installed the chart on your computer, you can see how and where the Fibonacci levels are plotted. From the high of 2001.01.01 candle to the low of 2000.10.01 candle, from top to bottom. If you do so, the 161.80% and 261.80% level will be placed above the 100% candle.

June candle closed as a spinning top which is a reversal candle that needs confirmation of course. Its confirmation is the next candle that preferably closes below the close of June candle. The current candle (July), went up to test the 423.60% level but last week, it failed and started going down. If the July candle breaks below the low of July candle, then August will be a strong bearish candle and EUR-USD may go down to test the uptrend support line (about 800 pips below the current price).

Weekly Chart:

If you have been following me since last months, you should remember the 1.4144 level. I told you that it any of the weekly candles closes above this level, EUR-USD will keep on going up. This level can be known the same as the 423.60% level. In fact, Fibonacci levels are not just "levels". They are zones. And in this case, the 1.4144 shows the exact position of 423.60% level which is a little higher than where the Fibonacci indicators shows.

The 2009.06.28 candle on the weekly chart, was the last candle that tested the 1.4144 resistance hardly and then failed. The candle after (2009.07.05) couldn't even reach the 1.4144. These are all the signals indicating that EUR-USD will go down.

1.39465 is closest support level which is the close of 2009.06.14 candle.

Daily Chart:

Daily chart is also showing that the uptrend support line may be touched. This uptrend is different from the uptrend you saw on the monthly and weekly charts. This is a local uptrend on the daily chart that its support line is about 280 pips lower than the current price (you can see on your EUR-USD daily chart, if you have downloaded my charts). If EUR-USD breaks below this uptrend support line, then the uptrend support lines you saw on the monthly and weekly charts may be touched.

4hrs Chart:

A small local support line is broken on the 4hrs chart. So we will have a downward movement. It is possible that it goes up to retest the broken support line and then goes down. Lets look at 4hrs chart bigger picture. Please zoom out on your platform and then scroll down here to see my chart.

GBP-USD: 

Monthly Chart:

GBP-USD monthly chart is stuck below the 38.20% level. If the current monthly candle closes below the 38.20% level and it makes a bigger body that engulfs the June candle's body and lower shadow, it will be highly possible that we have a bearish month after this month.

Weekly Chart:

GBP-USD has been forming a saucer and handle pattern since several weeks ago. It is forming the handle now which can be a choppy stage. It means we may have a range (up and down). The rule says, if the handle resistance becomes broken, it will go much higher. Saucer and handle pattern is one of the strongest signals I have ever seen. It means in many cases it breaks above the resistance. Lets see.

Daily chart:

Daily now is trying to break above a resistance line (the red line). If it does, it will go up to test the 261.80% level and if closes above this level, it means the handle resistance is broken and GBP-USD will go much higher. Please scroll down and see the saucer and handle pattern I am talking about.

4hrs Chart:

On 4hrs chart, it is going up to test the resistance. This resistance breakout can be considered as the early signal for the handle resistance breakout. Lets see.

USD-JPY: 

Monthly Chart:

USD-JPY is on the way to test the next support level which is 89.913. This level is in fact the close price of 2009.01.01 candle. If any of the candles close below this level, then the 261.80% Fibonacci level will be reached.

Weekly Chart:

Last week candle closed as a big bearish candle. So it is possible that bears take a break this week and we see a bullish candle and then USD-JPY keeps on going down after that. It is also possible that it goes down strongly. We never know, but if I wanted to trade based on the weekly chart, I would not go short now. It is too late. But I would go short last week, after the broken support line retesting (the short green line). The close of 2009.06.28 candle was the best time to go short. I am sure now the daily candle confirms that we have to wait and we should not go short. Lets check it.

Daily Chart:

Here we go! A buy signal is formed right above the 161.80% level. However, I do not dare to go long because it is against the trend and the weekly and monthly chart directions. We can wait for a fresh sell signal to go short.

4hrs Chart:

There is a local small resistance on the 4hrs chart. If any of the candles, close above this resistance, we can go long but as I said, it will be again the main trend direction. If a sell signal forms below this line, we can go short. It seems the current candle on the 4hrs chart (2009.07.13 20:00) is closing below the resistance and also the Bollinger Middle Band.